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Many folks have probably been witness to natural disasters such as earthquakes or tsunamis and the reality of it all is that folks may be left helpless if and when one does occur. The devastation will of course vary depending on how strong the magnitude of a quake is though researchers are doing their end to be ready for the inevitable.

In the case of Hawaii, the Aleutian Islands could suffer dearly if an earthquake hits.

According to a team from the University of Hawaii in Manoa (UHM), a quake with a magnitude of 9+ could be catastrophic. But the good news is that their research shows that there is a 9-percent chance of such happening and in the next 50 years with the margin of error being three percent.

The magnitude is technically just scratching the tip of the iceberg. Normally tsunamis are not far behind and warnings are raised not long after. Everyone has seen what a 7+ magnitude brings so one can just imagine what a 9+ brings.

The scientists bare that an earthquake of that magnitude could have enough power to create a mega-tsunami, a threat to the inhabitants at the Aleutian Islands. Should such occur, it may cost nearly $40 billion to recover from such.

"Having no recorded history of mega tsunamis in Hawaii, and given the tsunami threat to Hawaii, we devised a model for magnitude 9 earthquake rates following upon the insightful work of David Burbidge and others," bares Rhett Butler, a geophysicist at the UHM School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST) and lead author of the study.

Butler and his team created a numerical model based solely on the plate of tectonics: fault length and plate convergence rate. With the aid of Bayesian techniques, they were able to validate using the data of historic and seismic/tsunami dates involving five earthquakes greater than a magnitude 9 since 1900 that took place in regions such as Tohoku, Sumatra-Andaman, Alaska, Chile and Kamchatka.

"The events differed in details, but all of them generated great tsunamis that caused enormous destruction," Butler explained.

Aside from that, the team also put into consideration tsunamis that occurred prior to recorded history, using evidence coming from geological layers in coastal sediments, volcanic tephras and archaeological sites.

For those who want to see for themselves, the findings were published in the April 20 issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research.