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Mitt Romney Set to Win Presidency? Researchers say Yes

By Staff Reporter | Update Date: Aug 23, 2012 11:12 AM EDT

And now for some political science: 

Better enjoy whatever health insurance you have because according to researchers at the University of Colorado Boulder, Mitt Romney is set to win the 2012 election.

Researchers Kenneth Bickers of CU Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver have implemented state-by-state analysis of factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980; the present model forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.

The scary part?

Their model has accurately predicted all elections since 1980, including the two years when independent candidates ran strongly in 1980 and 1992. It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election, according to CU Press.

"Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble," says political science professor Kenneth Bickers also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.

According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama's 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.

"The key is the economy," says Bickers and Berry.

The former adds, "What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida,"

The study will be published this month in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association.

For details visit CU.

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