Search Here

Affective forecasting, often called hedonic forecasting, refers to predicting future emotional states. 

What is Affective Forecasting?

Psychologists Timothy Wilson and Daniel Gilbert expanded on this concept in the 1990s, investigating how well people can estimate their future feelings. For example, they explored questions like whether marrying a particular person will bring lasting happiness or if moving to a new city will improve one's mood.

Why Affective Forecasting Matters

Inaccuracy in Predictions

People often misjudge what will make them happy or sad. Wilson and Gilbert's research shows that people frequently overestimate the intensity and duration of their emotional responses to future events. This misjudgment affects decisions, such as purchasing luxury items, which may not bring lasting happiness.

Present Bias

People are influenced by their current emotions, which can color their expectations for the future. This bias leads to unreliable affective forecasts, impacting decisions like career changes or major purchases.

Daily Life Impact

Affective forecasting is part of everyday life. Anticipating the outcome of a work meeting or a social event involves predicting future feelings. These predictions, whether of dread or joy, influence daily decisions and behaviors.

Age and Experience

Older adults tend to be better at affective forecasting because they draw from past experiences. They understand that the initial excitement from events, like buying a new car, may not last as long as initially expected.

Procrastination

Affective forecasting influences procrastination. People often believe their future selves will be more motivated, leading them to delay tasks. This affects areas like fitness, where the current self postpones workouts, assuming future motivation will be higher.

Related Tendencies

Other biases, such as projection bias, temporal discounting, and focalism, interplay with affective forecasting. Projection bias involves assuming future preferences will mirror current ones. Temporal discounting focuses on immediate desires over future benefits, affecting financial decisions. Focalism, the tendency to emphasize certain event details while ignoring others, can skew predictions.